See the chart from The Common App Report March 2024 below. Notice the low growth of the highly-selective colleges. This means they are all wildcards for even the most qualified candidates.
How hard an individual student works means little, and every applicant is highly qualified. All that matters is that particular college’s institutional priorities. Notice the highest growth is at the least selective (and often less expensive) colleges.
This trend drives selectivity. The Universities of Tennessee and South Carolina now offer admission to the top 10% of students in their respective states, as the highly-selective UTAustin has always done. They will both be more selective for out of state students. The University of Georgia has gotten significantly more competitive in the last five years, so Auburn and Tennessee have followed. Winning sports teams also generate more applications.
Now that Boston College has become nearly as selective as Notre Dame, Holy Cross has a 16% acceptance rate. All are “unlikelies.” Villanova’s admit rate is in the low 20’s, and is still lower for the most competitive majors. Providence is no longer a ”likely” for many students, and the College of Charleston is sure to follow that trend as students look for alternatives to the University of South Carolina, which will see a big increase in apps because of their Women’s Basketball team win at March Madness. While UVA has become increasingly selective, especially for out of state students, James Madison’s apps have doubled.
We are losing our targets and likely colleges, as many students are looking for affordable options where they can be admitted.
Nothing significant has changed at any of these colleges in just a few years’ time. They are not fundamentally better than their peer schools that didn’t experience big increases in the number of applications or reductions in acceptance rates. They simply benefited from certain factors and from enrollment management. Holy Cross, the University of Tennessee, and the College of Charleston are fantastic colleges, but they are not better today than they were three years ago, despite the lower admit rate.
I want to help students and parents understand how much harder the current landscape of selective college admissions is than when their older children applied. They fear that not being admitted to colleges with low admit rates is somehow failing.
Getting denied from highly selective colleges is not failing. Failing in this process is not doing your homework and choosing the right colleges to apply to.
The college admissions landscape for selective colleges is simply very, very tough. For several years, admit rates have gone way down. I have classified colleges that admit 15% or less "unlikelies," but my number is too low (the Common App classifies "highly selectives" as under 25%); that number of colleges has grown from 62 in 2019 to 71 in 2024. 29 of those colleges/universities have admit rates under 10% and 42 have admit rates between 10-20%. Why focus on these colleges? Because as this category of colleges grows, it affects what happens with admit rates at all of the other colleges. That means many "likely" colleges have become "possibles."
A college is not better just because it is harder to get into. But the more selective a school is, the more desirable it becomes. I can point to numerous colleges that just in the last two or three years have cut their acceptance rate in half – and they are the exact same colleges they were a couple of years ago (they might even offer a worse experience because now they have a housing shortage due to increased demand!). People suddenly attach a value to it that has nothing to do with the actual college itself. Conversely, they may assume that if a college is an easier admit, then it must be less good, and that is simply untrue. DON'T LET YOURSELF GET SUCKED INTO THIS! I see kids every year apply to colleges that, even if were accepted, are not good fits for them.
Next week, some specifics.
So happy to get this information every August!
There is a lot of information about college admissions on the Internet, but much of it is not vetted and unreliable. Thanks to my genrous, professional colleagues, I receive these updates each year and am happy to share them with my students and families.
Set up a meeting if you'd like to learn more.
Early Decision, Early Action, and Regular Decision Acceptance Rates
In-State and Out-of-State Acceptance Rates
Financial Aid for International Noncitizens
International Noncitizens Acceptance Rate and Yield
Percentage of Students Submitting SAT and ACT Scores