More trends impacting applicants

See the chart from The Common App Report March 2024 below. Notice the low growth of the highly-selective colleges. This means they are all wildcards for even the most qualified candidates. 

How hard an individual student works means little, and every applicant is highly qualified. All that matters is that particular college’s institutional priorities. Notice the highest growth is at the least selective (and often less expensive) colleges. 

This trend drives selectivity. The Universities of Tennessee and South Carolina now offer admission to the top 10% of students in their respective states, as the highly-selective UTAustin has always done. They will both be more selective for out of state students. The University of Georgia has gotten significantly more competitive in the last five years, so Auburn and Tennessee have followed. Winning sports teams also generate more applications.  

Now that Boston College has become nearly as selective as Notre Dame, Holy Cross has a 16% acceptance rate. All are “unlikelies.” Villanova’s admit rate is in the low 20’s, and is still lower for the most competitive majors. Providence is no longer a ”likely” for many students, and the College of Charleston is sure to follow that trend as students look for alternatives to the University of South Carolina, which will see a big increase in apps because of their Women’s Basketball team win at March Madness. While UVA has become increasingly selective, especially for out of state students, James Madison’s apps have doubled.

We are losing our targets and likely colleges, as many students are looking for affordable options where they can be admitted. 

Nothing significant has changed at any of these colleges in just a few years’ time. They are not fundamentally better than their peer schools that didn’t experience big increases in the number of applications or reductions in acceptance rates. They simply benefited from certain factors and from enrollment management. Holy Cross, the University of Tennessee, and the College of Charleston are fantastic colleges, but they are not better today than they were three years ago, despite the lower admit rate.