Underenrollment, overenrollment…or just too many applications?

First we heard that there was a 15% drop in college enrollment. That made sense, given the drop in the number of students of the age to apply to college. Then, last week, we got a correction: enrollment had actually increased. The National Clearinghouse Research Center apologized for its incorrect calculation with this data:

• Freshmen enrollment grew 5.5 percent this fall (+130,000). Building on last fall’s increases, the growth was strongest at community colleges, which added 63,000 freshmen (+7.1%). Overall 18-year-old freshmen also saw enrollment gains this fall (+3.4%, +59,000).

• Enrollment increased across all regions this fall. Institutions in the Northeast saw a 4.7 percent increase, the first gains since prior to the pandemic. The South (+4.7%) and West (+4.6%) saw similar gains, followed by the Midwest (+3.1%).

There has also been a significant increase in the number of applications submitted per student since 2020. But colleges are banking on admitting students they believe will enroll, not those who are merely qualified. That’s called “yield.” To students who “have worked hard and done everything right,” this defies logic.

Each year, I see many of my students with the highest level of rigor, numbers, and extracurriculars from top-ranked high schools deferred by highly selective colleges, especially if they are applying to the most competitive majors (generally Computer Science, Engineering, Business). Why? There are too many applicants who look similar. Colleges receive over one hundred applications from some of these high schools! 

Colleges defer these exceptional students, assuming they are applying to a range of highly-selective colleges and are not safe bets to enroll.

Who is being admitted? I’m seeing some students with lower numbers or lower level extracurricular activities being admitted to the colleges that are deferring the stronger students. These students may attend smaller high schools and/or parochial schools that send fewer applications to these colleges. Will they enroll, or “yield?” The colleges, enjoying higher enrollment, must believe they will.